2.8 Technical Analysis - 2.8 Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Unlike fundamental analysis, which examines a company's financial health, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements to forecast future trends.
Key Concepts
- Price Charts
- Trends and Patterns
- Support and Resistance Levels
- Technical Indicators
- Volume Analysis
Price Charts
Price charts are graphical representations of a security's price over time. They are the foundation of technical analysis. Common types of charts include line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts. Each type provides different insights into price movements.
Example: A candlestick chart displays the open, high, low, and close prices for a specific time period. A green candlestick indicates a price increase, while a red candlestick indicates a price decrease.
Trends and Patterns
Trends and patterns are recurring price movements that can be identified on charts. Trends can be uptrends (rising prices), downtrends (falling prices), or sideways trends (consolidation). Patterns, such as head and shoulders, double tops, and triangles, can signal potential reversals or continuations of trends.
Example: A head and shoulders pattern consists of three peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being lower. This pattern often indicates a reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels are price levels where a security tends to stop falling (support) or rising (resistance). These levels are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points in the market. Support levels can act as a floor, while resistance levels can act as a ceiling.
Example: If a stock has repeatedly bounced off a price level of $50, that level is considered a strong support. Conversely, if the stock has struggled to break above $60, that level is considered a resistance.
Technical Indicators
Technical indicators are mathematical calculations based on the price, volume, or open interest of a security. They help traders identify potential market trends, gauge market momentum, and confirm patterns. Common indicators include Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Example: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator consists of two lines: the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is often considered a buy signal, and vice versa for a sell signal.
Volume Analysis
Volume analysis involves studying the trading volume of a security to gain insights into market activity. High volume during price increases can confirm a strong uptrend, while high volume during price declines can confirm a strong downtrend. Volume can also help identify potential reversals.
Example: If a stock is in an uptrend but experiences a significant price drop on high volume, it could signal that the uptrend is losing momentum and a reversal may be imminent.